TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Figures
List of Tables
Preface
Acknowledgments
Chapter One Introduction to South–South Relations
Chapter Two South–South Relations in Their Historical Context
Chapter Three Theoretical Frameworks and Emerging Trends
Chapter Four Empirical Analysis of the Structure of Trade and Finance
Chapter Five Stopping a Second Great Divergence: A New Framework for South–South Relations
Chapter Six Concluding Thoughts
Appendix
References
Index
LIST OF FIGURES
3.1 Number of preferential trade agreements by country pairs, 1958–2013
3.2 The evolution of global preferential goods trade, 1958–2013
3.3 The evolution of Southern and Northern preferential goods trade, 1958–2013
3.4 Evolution of bilateral vs. multilateral trade agreements, 1973–2013
4.1 The share of global South and North in world merchandise goods trade, 1948–2013
4.2a Diverging trends within the global South: share of Emerging South within global South–South and South–North trade, 1948–2013
4.2b Diverging trends within the South: Shares of intra-Rest of South and intra-Emerging South exports in Rest of South and Emerging South exports, 1948–2013
4.3 Share of the Rest of South, Emerging South and North in world merchandise exports, 1948–2013
4.4a The share of primary good exports vs. GDP per capita, 1995–2009
4.4b The share of low-skill manufactures exports vs. GDP per capita, 1995–2009
4.4c The share of medium-skill manufactures exports vs. GDP per capita, 1995–2009
4.4d The share of high-skill manufactures exports vs. GDP per capita, 1995–2009
4.5 Median export unit values across product and country groups, 2009 (current prices)
4.6 The share of the Rest of South, Emerging South and the North in world manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.7 The share of the global South–South trade in world trade, 1995–2009
4.8 Emerging South vs. global South in total and manufactured goods trade, 1995–2009
4.9 Direction of the Rest of South manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.10 Direction of Emerging South manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.11 Country distribution of global high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.12 Importance of high-skill manufactures in total manufactures exports of country groups, 1995–2009
4.13a Direction of Rest of South high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.13b Direction of Emerging South high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.13c Share of intragroup trade in high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.14 Country distribution of global medium-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.15 Importance of medium-skill manufactures in total manufactures exports of country groups, 1995–2009
4.16 The share of the Rest of South, Emerging South and the North in world manufactures exports, 1995, 2000, 2009
4.17 Share of natural resource intensive manufactures and primary goods in total exports from the Rest of South, 1995–2009
4.18 Share of high-, medium- and low-skill manufactures in the Rest of South merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995 vs. 2009
4.19 Share of natural resource intensive manufactures and primary goods in Rest of South merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995–2009
4.20 Share of high-, medium- and low-skill manufactures in Emerging South merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995 vs. 2009
4.21 Share of natural resource intensive manufactures and primary goods in Emerging South merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995–2009
4.22 Share of high-, medium- and low- skill manufactures in Northern merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995 vs. 2009
4.23 Intraregional global South–South trade in 2009
4.24a Export market diversification by country groups, 1948–2013
4.24b Standard deviation of export market diversification within country groups, 1948–2013
4.25 Average Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for the Rest of South based on skill intensity
4.26 Average Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for the Emerging South based on skill intensity
4.27 Average Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for the North based on skill intensity
4.28 Total trade restrictiveness index (TTRI) faced by global South and North exporters, 2000–2009
4.29 Average effectively applied tariff rates faced by total manufactures exports from global South and North, 1992–2013
4.30 Global FDI inflows, 1970–2013
4.31 Global FDI outflows, 1970–2013
5.1 Copper prices, USD, 2000:1–2015:9.
5.2 All commodities, food and metal commodity price index (2005=100), monthly, 2000:1–2015:9
5.3 Oil, coffee, soybeans and cocoa prices, USD, monthly, 2000:1–2015:9
5.4 Nickel, tin and iron ore prices, USD, monthly, 2000:1–2015:9
5.5 Average institutional development in the South vs. the North, 1984–2012
5.6 Institutional distance across countries, South vs. North, 1984–2012
LIST OF TABLES
2.1 Percentage share of intraregional South–South PTAs in total PTAs by region
2.2 Percentage distribution of WTO disputes by income, 1995–2015
2.3 Top ten WTO dispute complainants and respondents, 1995–2015
2.4 Top WTO dispute complainants by respondent pairs, 1995–2015
2.5 Total number of BITs by country groups, North vs. South, 1959–2015
2.6 Total number of BITs and ISDS by country groups and decade, South vs. North, 1959–2015
2.7 Top ten respondents and claimants in total number of ISDS, 1987–2014
3.1 Top five exports and imports of Brazil to and from Kenya in 2009
3.2 Top five exports and imports of Brazil to and from US in 2009
3.3 Trade balance of Brazil with the US and Kenya in 2009 (thousands of USD)
3.4a Trade balance of the Rest of South, Emerging South and the North, 2009 (millions USD)
3.4b Trade balance of the Rest of South, Emerging South and the North, 1995 (millions USD)
4.1a Median export unit values, 2009 (thousands USD per metric ton, current prices)
4.1b Percentage change in median export unit values (per metric ton), 1995 vs. 2009
4.1c Export prices across products and importers
4.1d Average export unit prices across exporters
4.2 Geographical distribution of world merchandise exports, 1995–2009
4.3 Geographical distribution of global medium- and high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.4 Export values vs. export volumes in world trade by geographical location
4.5 Extensive margins in world trade in 2005 and 2009: the number of distinct products exported at six-digit level
4.6 Top ten Rest of South exports and their percentage shares in 2009
4.7 Top ten Emerging South exports and their percentage shares in 2009
4.8 Top ten products and percentage shares in Rest of South–South and Rest of South–Emerging South merchandise exports in 2009
4.9 Top ten products and percentage shares in Rest of South–North merchandise exports in 2009
4.10 Top ten products and percentage shares in Rest of South–South and Rest of South–Emerging South manufactures exports in 2009
4.11 Top ten products and percentage shares in Rest of South–North manufactures exports in 2009
4.12 Top ten products and percentage shares in Emerging South–Rest of South and Emerging South–Emerging South exports in 2009
4.13 Top ten products and percentage shares in Emerging South–North Exports in 2009
4.14 Top ten products and percentage shares in Emerging South–Rest of South and Emerging South–Emerging South manufactures exports in 2009
4.15 Top ten products and percentage shares in Emerging South–North manufactures exports in 2009
4.16a Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for inter- and intraregional trade in 2009 at HS six-digit product level
4.16a Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for inter- and intraregional trade in 1995 at HS six-digit product level
4.17 Average Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index based on skill intensity of exports (at three-digit level), 1995–2009
4.18 Average intragroup Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index based on skill intensity (three-digit), 1995–2009
4.19 Top ten exporters of merchandise goods in the world, 1950, 1980 and 2013
4.20 Top ten exporters in global South–South trade, 1950, 1980 and 2013
4.21 Top ten exporters in global South–North trade, 1950, 1980 and 2013
4.22 Top ten FDI host countries, 2000 vs. 2013 (billions, current USD)
4.23 Percentage shares of top FDI host countries in the North and the global South, 2000 vs. 2013
4.24 Top ten FDI home countries, 2000 vs. 2013 (current billions USD)
4.25 Percentage shares of top FDI home countries in the North and the global South
5.1 Necessary conditions of new-developmentalism
5.2 Percentage share of Chinese exports and imports in world trade, 1990, 2003 and 2012
5.3 Product composition of Chinese exports and imports, 1990, 2003 and 2012
5.4 Share of Chinese imports in total world trade of selected commodities: copper, nickel, aluminum, iron and zinc, 1990 vs. 2012
5.5 Importance of copper for Chilean exports, 1990 vs. 2012
5.6 Structure of China-Latin America trade, 1990, 2003 and 2012
5.7 Composition of exports and imports of China to and from six Emerging South countries, 1990, 2003 and 2012
5.8 Importance of China in Rest of South and Emerging South trade by product groups, 1990 vs. 2012
5.9 Structure of China–South trade, 1990 vs. 2012
5.10 Outward FDI flows and stocks from China by region and country, percentage shares, 2013
5.11 Outward FDI flows and stocks from China by sector, percentage shares, 2013.
5.12 Land run in the twenty-first century: top-ten cross-border land acquisition agreements by investor and target country
5.13 Top ten crops in cross-border land deals
5.14 Top ten investor and target countries in cross-border land deals, by million acres
5.15 Top five US cross-border land deals by target country
5.16 Top five Chinese cross-border land deals by target country
5.17 Framework for Assessing South–South relations
5.18 Share of Southern exports by product groups in world trade in 2012
5.19 Changes in IMF voting shares by region and income group in 2008 and 2010 (number of countries)
5.20 Percentage point change in IMF voting shares by region and income group in 2008 and 2010
List of Tables
Preface
Acknowledgments
Chapter One Introduction to South–South Relations
Chapter Two South–South Relations in Their Historical Context
Chapter Three Theoretical Frameworks and Emerging Trends
Chapter Four Empirical Analysis of the Structure of Trade and Finance
Chapter Five Stopping a Second Great Divergence: A New Framework for South–South Relations
Chapter Six Concluding Thoughts
Appendix
References
Index
LIST OF FIGURES
3.1 Number of preferential trade agreements by country pairs, 1958–2013
3.2 The evolution of global preferential goods trade, 1958–2013
3.3 The evolution of Southern and Northern preferential goods trade, 1958–2013
3.4 Evolution of bilateral vs. multilateral trade agreements, 1973–2013
4.1 The share of global South and North in world merchandise goods trade, 1948–2013
4.2a Diverging trends within the global South: share of Emerging South within global South–South and South–North trade, 1948–2013
4.2b Diverging trends within the South: Shares of intra-Rest of South and intra-Emerging South exports in Rest of South and Emerging South exports, 1948–2013
4.3 Share of the Rest of South, Emerging South and North in world merchandise exports, 1948–2013
4.4a The share of primary good exports vs. GDP per capita, 1995–2009
4.4b The share of low-skill manufactures exports vs. GDP per capita, 1995–2009
4.4c The share of medium-skill manufactures exports vs. GDP per capita, 1995–2009
4.4d The share of high-skill manufactures exports vs. GDP per capita, 1995–2009
4.5 Median export unit values across product and country groups, 2009 (current prices)
4.6 The share of the Rest of South, Emerging South and the North in world manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.7 The share of the global South–South trade in world trade, 1995–2009
4.8 Emerging South vs. global South in total and manufactured goods trade, 1995–2009
4.9 Direction of the Rest of South manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.10 Direction of Emerging South manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.11 Country distribution of global high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.12 Importance of high-skill manufactures in total manufactures exports of country groups, 1995–2009
4.13a Direction of Rest of South high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.13b Direction of Emerging South high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.13c Share of intragroup trade in high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.14 Country distribution of global medium-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.15 Importance of medium-skill manufactures in total manufactures exports of country groups, 1995–2009
4.16 The share of the Rest of South, Emerging South and the North in world manufactures exports, 1995, 2000, 2009
4.17 Share of natural resource intensive manufactures and primary goods in total exports from the Rest of South, 1995–2009
4.18 Share of high-, medium- and low-skill manufactures in the Rest of South merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995 vs. 2009
4.19 Share of natural resource intensive manufactures and primary goods in Rest of South merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995–2009
4.20 Share of high-, medium- and low-skill manufactures in Emerging South merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995 vs. 2009
4.21 Share of natural resource intensive manufactures and primary goods in Emerging South merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995–2009
4.22 Share of high-, medium- and low- skill manufactures in Northern merchandise exports, by export direction, 1995 vs. 2009
4.23 Intraregional global South–South trade in 2009
4.24a Export market diversification by country groups, 1948–2013
4.24b Standard deviation of export market diversification within country groups, 1948–2013
4.25 Average Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for the Rest of South based on skill intensity
4.26 Average Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for the Emerging South based on skill intensity
4.27 Average Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for the North based on skill intensity
4.28 Total trade restrictiveness index (TTRI) faced by global South and North exporters, 2000–2009
4.29 Average effectively applied tariff rates faced by total manufactures exports from global South and North, 1992–2013
4.30 Global FDI inflows, 1970–2013
4.31 Global FDI outflows, 1970–2013
5.1 Copper prices, USD, 2000:1–2015:9.
5.2 All commodities, food and metal commodity price index (2005=100), monthly, 2000:1–2015:9
5.3 Oil, coffee, soybeans and cocoa prices, USD, monthly, 2000:1–2015:9
5.4 Nickel, tin and iron ore prices, USD, monthly, 2000:1–2015:9
5.5 Average institutional development in the South vs. the North, 1984–2012
5.6 Institutional distance across countries, South vs. North, 1984–2012
LIST OF TABLES
2.1 Percentage share of intraregional South–South PTAs in total PTAs by region
2.2 Percentage distribution of WTO disputes by income, 1995–2015
2.3 Top ten WTO dispute complainants and respondents, 1995–2015
2.4 Top WTO dispute complainants by respondent pairs, 1995–2015
2.5 Total number of BITs by country groups, North vs. South, 1959–2015
2.6 Total number of BITs and ISDS by country groups and decade, South vs. North, 1959–2015
2.7 Top ten respondents and claimants in total number of ISDS, 1987–2014
3.1 Top five exports and imports of Brazil to and from Kenya in 2009
3.2 Top five exports and imports of Brazil to and from US in 2009
3.3 Trade balance of Brazil with the US and Kenya in 2009 (thousands of USD)
3.4a Trade balance of the Rest of South, Emerging South and the North, 2009 (millions USD)
3.4b Trade balance of the Rest of South, Emerging South and the North, 1995 (millions USD)
4.1a Median export unit values, 2009 (thousands USD per metric ton, current prices)
4.1b Percentage change in median export unit values (per metric ton), 1995 vs. 2009
4.1c Export prices across products and importers
4.1d Average export unit prices across exporters
4.2 Geographical distribution of world merchandise exports, 1995–2009
4.3 Geographical distribution of global medium- and high-skill manufactures exports, 1995–2009
4.4 Export values vs. export volumes in world trade by geographical location
4.5 Extensive margins in world trade in 2005 and 2009: the number of distinct products exported at six-digit level
4.6 Top ten Rest of South exports and their percentage shares in 2009
4.7 Top ten Emerging South exports and their percentage shares in 2009
4.8 Top ten products and percentage shares in Rest of South–South and Rest of South–Emerging South merchandise exports in 2009
4.9 Top ten products and percentage shares in Rest of South–North merchandise exports in 2009
4.10 Top ten products and percentage shares in Rest of South–South and Rest of South–Emerging South manufactures exports in 2009
4.11 Top ten products and percentage shares in Rest of South–North manufactures exports in 2009
4.12 Top ten products and percentage shares in Emerging South–Rest of South and Emerging South–Emerging South exports in 2009
4.13 Top ten products and percentage shares in Emerging South–North Exports in 2009
4.14 Top ten products and percentage shares in Emerging South–Rest of South and Emerging South–Emerging South manufactures exports in 2009
4.15 Top ten products and percentage shares in Emerging South–North manufactures exports in 2009
4.16a Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for inter- and intraregional trade in 2009 at HS six-digit product level
4.16a Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index for inter- and intraregional trade in 1995 at HS six-digit product level
4.17 Average Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index based on skill intensity of exports (at three-digit level), 1995–2009
4.18 Average intragroup Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index based on skill intensity (three-digit), 1995–2009
4.19 Top ten exporters of merchandise goods in the world, 1950, 1980 and 2013
4.20 Top ten exporters in global South–South trade, 1950, 1980 and 2013
4.21 Top ten exporters in global South–North trade, 1950, 1980 and 2013
4.22 Top ten FDI host countries, 2000 vs. 2013 (billions, current USD)
4.23 Percentage shares of top FDI host countries in the North and the global South, 2000 vs. 2013
4.24 Top ten FDI home countries, 2000 vs. 2013 (current billions USD)
4.25 Percentage shares of top FDI home countries in the North and the global South
5.1 Necessary conditions of new-developmentalism
5.2 Percentage share of Chinese exports and imports in world trade, 1990, 2003 and 2012
5.3 Product composition of Chinese exports and imports, 1990, 2003 and 2012
5.4 Share of Chinese imports in total world trade of selected commodities: copper, nickel, aluminum, iron and zinc, 1990 vs. 2012
5.5 Importance of copper for Chilean exports, 1990 vs. 2012
5.6 Structure of China-Latin America trade, 1990, 2003 and 2012
5.7 Composition of exports and imports of China to and from six Emerging South countries, 1990, 2003 and 2012
5.8 Importance of China in Rest of South and Emerging South trade by product groups, 1990 vs. 2012
5.9 Structure of China–South trade, 1990 vs. 2012
5.10 Outward FDI flows and stocks from China by region and country, percentage shares, 2013
5.11 Outward FDI flows and stocks from China by sector, percentage shares, 2013.
5.12 Land run in the twenty-first century: top-ten cross-border land acquisition agreements by investor and target country
5.13 Top ten crops in cross-border land deals
5.14 Top ten investor and target countries in cross-border land deals, by million acres
5.15 Top five US cross-border land deals by target country
5.16 Top five Chinese cross-border land deals by target country
5.17 Framework for Assessing South–South relations
5.18 Share of Southern exports by product groups in world trade in 2012
5.19 Changes in IMF voting shares by region and income group in 2008 and 2010 (number of countries)
5.20 Percentage point change in IMF voting shares by region and income group in 2008 and 2010
